Weekly Market Overview

February 24

Last week there were different trends in different currencies. The EURUSD pair added up 0.2% by the end of the week at 1.3740. All important reports from the Euro zone and the USA came out negative, what triggered a serious endeavor between “Up” and “Down”. The main economical power of the EU, Germany has felt sad due to unfulfilled expectations its investors by weak ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and also by PMI manufacturing index.

The leading economy of Europe is still in a fever and it can’t find the way of the firm economic growth recovery. The US market of real estate has shown slowdown of the growth pace, what is related to cyclic problems on the labor market. Inflation in the US had come out on the level of market expectations, what encouraged bulls on the main stock exchanges.
Downgrade of inflation pressure is always perceived positively by stock markets, as Central Banks in such conditions are not in a hurry to toughen monetary policy.
The GCP pair set a fresh multiyear maximum at 1.6822, but the end of the week ended with a 0.9 % decline in 1.6615. On Tuesday, February 18  The national bureau of statistics of Great Britain published report on consumer price index in January.

CPI index came out at 1.9% (in the yearly count). It is the minimum level since November 2009. Following the EU and the US Great Britain is reducing inflation pressure, what in the future will reflect negatively on economic growth. Data on labor markets also didn’t make bulls too happy: unemployment in December increased up to 7.2%. Population, income growth in December could positively reflect on retail sales.
In the first part of the week the pair USDJPY was growing rapidly after the CB of Japan had announced prolongation on the program of banks’ crediting on discounted rates. The fact was perceived by investors as an additional measure of economic stimulating. Against such positive background the rates have raised up to 102.73. However, weak reports from the US on real estate market and CPI acted as resistance to growth continuation. Positive sentiments of the Japanese stock exchange supported growth of the USDJPY.



The Euro is returning back after its dip move to the 1.3685 level. Here is a strong resistance at the level 1.3773. It is probably to admit the term of the consolidation into the range that the levels mentioned before will be traded.


The US dollar is repaired after its trying the 102.8 level. However the trend still remains as up trend. The bias still remains to be positive and the pattern confirms the bias and stays an ascending triangle. We still have the same level as some resistance and the pair will probably test that level.


The British Pound is doing some correction of the move to the new top. The pair is going with some not a sharp slant and the nearest support level is remaining around 1.6615. And not a sharp bounce is anticipated if the level will hold as a resistance.



Monday, February 24
09:00       EUR         German Ifo Business Climate Index           
10:00       EUR         CPI (YoY)       
Tuesday, February 25
15:00       USD         CB Consumer Confidence       
Wednesday, February 26
09:30       GBP         GDP (YoY)                
09:30       GBP         GDP (QoQ)                
15:00       USD         New Home Sales           
Thursday, February 27
All Day       Holiday     India - Mahashivarati
13:30       USD         Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)               
15:00       USD         Fed Chair Yellen Testifies   

Friday, February 28
10:00       EUR         CPI (YoY)                      
13:30       CAD         GDP (MoM)               
13:30       USD         GDP (QoQ)                
15:00       USD         Pending Home Sales (MoM)           
15:30       GBP         BoE Gov Carney Speaks